Rate Lock Expiration Can Cost More Than a 25-Bps Move
At 6.37%, lock timing mistakes and extension costs can hit harder than the small rate moves borrowers obsess over. Here’s the math and checklist.
The 30-Year vs. 15-Year Mortgage: Who Actually Wins at 6.38%?
The 15-year saves $270,854 in interest but costs $742 more per month. Here's the full math, the invest-the-difference analysis, and an opinionated framework for making the right call at today's rates.
Your Mortgage Rate Has Two Engines. Right Now, Both Are Pushing It Up.
The 30-year rate is 6.38% — but the 10-year Treasury is only 4.42%. That 196 bps MBS spread gap is costing borrowers $107/month beyond what Treasury yields justify. Here's the two-engine model and what to watch for relief.
Buying Down Your Mortgage Rate at 6.22%: When the Math Works (and When It Doesn't)
Paying discount points takes ~5 years to break even at today's rates. Here's the exact math — and a spread compression risk that makes points a riskier bet in 2026.
The Spread Is the Story: Why Mortgage Rates Move Without the Fed
The 30yr/10yr spread just hit 197 basis points — up 13 bps in a week where Treasury yields barely moved. Here's what's driving it and what spread normalization could mean for your payment.
What Actually Sets Your Mortgage Rate (It's Not the Fed)
Most borrowers think Fed rate cuts will lower their mortgage rate. Here's the three-layer equation — Treasury yield + MBS spread + lender margin — that actually determines your rate.
Mortgage Rate Lock Strategy: When to Lock, When to Float, and What You're Really Risking
Most borrowers treat rate lock timing like a coin flip. It isn't. Here's a data-driven framework for one of the most consequential decisions in your mortgage process.
Why a 1% Rate Difference Costs You More Than You Think
Most buyers focus on the home price. Experienced borrowers know the rate is what really drives total cost — and the math is more dramatic than people expect.