What actually moves mortgage rates, why the headlines get it wrong, and how to think about market trends as a borrower.
The 30-year fixed hit 6.64% — an 8-month high — while the Fed held steady. Here's how the Iran War is driving a geopolitical rate chain that's repricing every home loan in America.
The 10-year Treasury swung 11 bps in a single afternoon on Iran headlines. There's ~33 bps of geopolitical war premium in today's mortgage rates. Here's what rate relief actually looks like when it unwinds.
The FOMC cut its 2026 rate-cut forecast in half, pushed inflation targets to 2028, and left 7 of 19 officials projecting zero cuts. Here's what the March dot plot means for your mortgage.
The FOMC convenes March 17–18. Rates will hold — but the dot plot and Powell's tone could move mortgage rates 15–25 bps. Here's what to watch before you lock.
The Fed cut rates three times, yet mortgage costs barely budged. The real culprit is the mortgage-Treasury spread, still 80 bps above normal — and it explains everything about where rates are headed.
Most people think the Fed controls mortgage rates. They don't. Here's what actually drives the 30-year fixed and why headlines get it wrong.